The Midnight File — The Desk’s Report
A Limited Strike at Qeshm, a Wider Lead in Mississippi, and a Lawsuit Dropped
The last entry of the day, filed before the log turns: Friday settled the labor market at 165,000 jobs, closed the worst week for stocks since June on a split day, and ended the Justice Department’s California ballot lawsuit by the department’s own filing. It left open the decisions it had open at dawn—the president struck an air-defense site on Qeshm Island in the evening and called it minor, while the larger Iran decision he promised stayed unannounced—and the count, where Mississippi’s Democratic lead widened to 2,574 votes, Alaska’s held at 637, and no race was called for a third day.
The Midnight in Brief: What Friday Settled, What It Left Open
Friday settled the labor market, the week in the markets, and one lawsuit. It left open the war, the count, and both parties’ leadership. The day’s largest settled fact arrived at 0830 and never moved: employers added 165,000 jobs in October against a consensus near 60,000, unemployment fell to 4.1 percent, and the two prior months were revised up by a combined 84,000. The week’s markets closed on that fact and against it at once—the Nasdaq up 1.09 percent and the Dow down 0.46 percent on Friday, the week down 2.7 percent for the S&P 500, its worst since June. In the evening the war produced the day’s last fact: the president confirmed, after landing in West Palm Beach, that American forces had struck an air-defense installation on Iran’s Qeshm Island, in the Strait of Hormuz, and called the strike minor. The larger decision he promised on Thursday—whether to resume the war in full—was not announced. In the count, Mississippi’s Democratic lead widened all day and stands at 2,574 votes in the wire’s Friday-evening figures; Alaska’s did not move from 637. No Senate race was called, for the third day. In the courts, the Justice Department dismissed its own lawsuit over 20,000 California ballots. The House called races on Friday in both directions and stands at 254 seats called for the Democrats and 162 for the Republicans in the wire’s Friday-afternoon tally, with 19 still open. Tuesday, November 10, now carries more of the open file than any day since the election: consumer prices at 0830, Mississippi’s ballot deadline, Alaska’s next count, both congressional parties’ leadership business, and the opening of the Abu Dhabi talks. The desk files the day in that order.
The Strike at Qeshm: A Limited Strike Confirmed, the Large Decision Still Unannounced
The evening’s new fact is a strike, and its scale is stated by the man who ordered it. President Trump told reporters after landing in West Palm Beach on Friday evening that American forces had knocked out an Iranian anti-aircraft installation on Qeshm Island: “They built a little bit of an anti-aircraft device and we knocked it out in about 15 minutes, maybe five,” in the Associated Press account filed below. The same account records that Iranian media reported two explosions in the Suza area of the island, that these were the first American strikes since Tuesday’s elections, and that Central Command had released no account of its own when the wire filed. A second account of the confirmation carries the Iranian side of the same hour: Tasnim reported early Saturday that two missiles had struck Qeshm, and IRNA cited witnesses who heard an aircraft before two projectiles struck the Suza area; no official Iranian damage assessment and no confirmed casualty figures had been released, and the account states plainly that the precise relationship between the reported missile impacts and the American operation has not been independently established. A third file, carrying the same Tasnim report, adds what two American officials told the president’s advisers’ circle: that some advisers say the window for a major operation is closing and urge action before the new Congress takes office in January. The strike was the second on the island in five days; the first, on Monday, November 2, followed a missile fired from Qeshm toward an American aircraft, in the accounts filed earlier this week.
What the strike is not is the decision. The president’s Thursday words stand where the Evening Watch left them: after his first post-midterm national security meeting he said a decision is coming on whether to go further with strikes until Iran’s nuclear program can be certified dead, or to stop short of destroying what is left of the country—“I would rather not destroy the rest of the country if possible, but maybe I’ll have to. You’ll know soon enough.” No announcement of that decision had been made by midnight, and no new directive to Central Command appears in any file the desk took in; the command’s preparations to resume major operations, reported Thursday, remain preparations. On the diplomatic track nothing moved on Friday: the Qatari draft and Iran’s formal proposal, sent through Qatar on Thursday, stand unanswered in the files, Tehran’s seven conditions stand unmet and unwithdrawn, and the strait stands claimed closed with traffic under 60 percent of capacity. One late entry belongs to the same file: late Friday, Central Command posted an offer of a reward of up to $20 million, under the State Department’s Rewards for Justice program, for information about Iran’s nuclear program, per the Associated Press account above. Oil, which had the week to price all of this, closed it down by double digits in every file—about 12 percent on the week in the Asian files, 16 percent in the London file, the disagreement printed in the Evening Watch and standing. At midnight the war’s state is exact: a limited strike carried out and confirmed, a large decision promised and not made, a proposal delivered and not answered.
The Count at Midnight: Mississippi Widens to 2,574, Alaska Does Not Move
Mississippi’s margin widened at every reading on Friday and the race is still uncalled. The day’s progression is in the live file kept by Democracy Docket, carrying the Associated Press figures: the Democrat, Scott Colom, led the incumbent Republican, Cindy Hyde-Smith, by 2,010 votes at 12:30 p.m., by 2,493 at 4:37 p.m.—467,829 votes to 465,336—and by 2,574 at 8:50 p.m., at 467,930 to 465,356, a widening of more than 750 votes since Thursday evening’s 1,813. The USA Today live file, at 6:43 p.m., put the lead at over 2,500 on the wire’s and Decision Desk HQ’s results, with over 97 percent of votes counted. Why the wire has not called it is stated in the Associated Press explainer filed below: the wire’s estimate of votes still outstanding stood at about 44,000 on Friday morning and was revised to about 30,000 by 4:45 p.m., with about 7 percent of ballots yet to be counted in Hinds County, which Mr. Colom carries by about 47,000 votes. The state’s own figures run alongside: about 3,300 mail ballots outstanding, in the secretary of state’s Friday statement carried in the state account filed below; 11,202 affidavit ballots reviewed by the counties, 8,717 accepted and 2,485 rejected, in the Jackson account timed Friday afternoon, which puts the lead at 2,498 on its own tally. Senator Hyde-Smith’s Friday position is on the record: “We are not backing down. This election is not over.” The procedure is unchanged and now short: mailed ballots postmarked by Election Day must arrive by Tuesday, November 10, affidavit questions are resolved by the same date, counties certify by November 13, and Mississippi has no provision for a recount—the only state in the country of which that is true, per the Al Jazeera explainer filed below, which adds that a recount there would require a court order.
Alaska did not move at all, and the analysis of Alaska did. The tally stands where it has stood since Wednesday: the Democrat, Mary Peltola, ahead of the incumbent Republican, Dan Sullivan, by 637 first-choice votes, with about a quarter of the vote still uncounted, the next major update expected Tuesday, November 10, and the ranked-choice tabulation set for November 18. Friday’s new material is the Reason account carrying a New York Times analysis of the ballots already scanned: of the voters who ranked the second candidate named Daniel Sullivan first, nearly 30 percent ranked Ms. Peltola second, 16 to 18 percent ranked the incumbent or the fourth candidate, and more than a third ranked no one else; and even if every one of the no-second-choice voters had intended the incumbent, the analysis finds, he would gain about one percentage point—not enough, in its reading, to offset Ms. Peltola’s expected gains from the uncounted mail vote. That is an analysis of a tabulation that has not been run, filed as one. The Sullivan campaign’s contrary arithmetic, printed in the Evening Watch—a tabulation run today would put the incumbent ahead by 328—stands beside it, unreconciled. The president’s own Friday position is also in the file: the votes for the second Sullivan should be given to the incumbent and the election declared over, in his words on his platform, carried in the Reason account. The Justice Department’s pre-election suit over the second Sullivan was dismissed by a federal judge on Sunday; the department has pledged an appeal, per the Al Jazeera explainer and the Associated Press. The count itself speaks next on Tuesday.
The House and the Courts: More Races Called, One Lawsuit Dropped
The House count moved on Friday, in both parties’ favor, and the open file shrank to 19 races. The New York Post’s Friday account, carrying the wire’s tally, puts the called races at 254 for the Democrats and 162 for the Republicans as of Friday afternoon, up from 155 Republican calls on Thursday, with 19 seats still open and the Democrats leading in about half of those. The races called Friday for the Republicans were Representative Jeff Hurd in Colorado’s 3rd, Mark Lamb in Arizona, and Anthony Constantino in New York’s 21st. The day’s Democratic call of consequence ran the other way: in South Carolina’s 1st District, Nancy Lacore, a retired Navy vice admiral, defeated Jenny Costa Honeycutt, in the projections of the Associated Press and NBC News carried at 8:35 p.m. in the USA Today live file—a district the president carried by 13 points in 2024. In North Carolina, per the same file, the Democrats will hold at least nine of the state’s fourteen seats, having held four; two races there stand inside a few hundred votes, Representative Greg Murphy ahead by 233 in the 3rd and Representative Virginia Foxx behind by 99 in the 5th. Colorado’s 4th was not called: the Democrat, Eileen Laubacher, stands ahead by 3,278 votes in the state’s afternoon figures, more than three times the automatic-recount line, with the remaining ballots concentrated in counties she carries and the cure deadline on November 12.
The day’s clearest settled item outside the labor report came from a court filing. The Justice Department on Friday moved to dismiss its own lawsuit seeking to stop California from counting roughly 20,000 ballots it alleged went to noncitizens until their status could be verified, in the Associated Press account filed below and Reuters’ account of the same filing. The department’s stated reason is its own sentence: the challenged ballots have been commingled with lawful ones, and “the relief the United States sought and needed is no longer available—rendering voluntary dismissal necessary.” The sequence stands in the files: the suit was filed in mid-October; the district judge allowed the election to proceed as planned and appointed a special master to evaluate the accuracy of the government’s list; the Supreme Court on Monday, November 2, rejected the department’s emergency request to block the counting; and the dismissal arrived days after the election and about a week before the special master’s hearing would have examined the list, which California officials have said is out of date and includes legitimate voters. California had processed roughly 9 million ballots by early Friday, with nearly 5 million still to count. The department remains in separate litigation over the same list, and its Alaska suit stands dismissed with an appeal pledged. One lawsuit ended on Friday; the list it was built on remains in court in another case.
Washington at Midnight: A New Chief of Staff, Three Departures, and the Leadership Questions
The White House changed its chief of staff on Friday, three days after the election. The president announced that Stephen Miller, his deputy chief of staff, will become chief of staff starting Monday, November 9, with Susie Wiles moving to the president’s political operation, in the announcement carried in the USA Today live file. The Justice Department recorded three senior departures in two days: the head of its Civil Rights Division resigned on Thursday, and on Friday the United States Attorney for the Southern District of Florida, whose office runs the investigation the file calls the “grand conspiracy” probe, submitted his resignation, and the assistant attorney general for national security’s departure was confirmed by the attorney general, per the same live file’s 5:30 p.m. entry. In the incoming majority, the Senate’s leadership question opened in public on Friday: newly elected Democratic senators questioned whether Senator Chuck Schumer should remain the party’s leader in January, Senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed among them, and Mr. Schumer answered in a statement late Friday that he intends, as majority leader, to keep the party on the path the election built, per the live file’s 7:23 p.m. entry. The House Republican field stands as the Evening Watch filed it: Representatives Scalise and Jordan for minority leader, the conference electing on Tuesday, November 10. In the states, Friday’s late calls and orders ran in the same direction as the week: in Kansas, the Democrat Chris Mann defeated the incumbent Republican attorney general, Kris Kobach, in the projections of the Associated Press and NBC News at 10:40 p.m.; and in Houston, the mayor directed the city’s police to contact federal immigration authorities only on a warrant for a person charged with a jailable offense, per the live file’s 9:57 p.m. entry. None of these items was a decision the week had been waiting on. All of them are the week’s consequences arriving, in officeholders’ own filings and announcements, before the new Congress exists.
The Week, Closed: A Bounce on Friday, a Loss on the Week
The market week that began with an election ended with its accounts in agreement. Friday’s closes are carried in the global close filed below: the Nasdaq Composite up 264.43 points, or 1.09 percent, to 24,579.42; the S&P 500 up 23.13 points, or 0.31 percent, to 7,376.86; the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 237.33 points, or 0.46 percent, to 51,285.73. The semiconductor shares recovered about 4 percent of Thursday’s fall of more than 12 percent. The week’s totals are the same in every closing account the desk took in: the S&P 500 down 2.7 percent, the Nasdaq down 3.4 percent, the Dow down 0.9 percent—the broad index’s worst week since June, made of a Wednesday rally on the election, a Thursday rout that erased it, and a Friday bounce that recovered a fraction of the rout. The payrolls report is the hinge both days turned on: it pushed the ten-year Treasury yield to 4.86 percent, the dollar index up 0.72 percent to 102.28, and the market’s priced probability of a quarter-point rate increase at the Federal Reserve’s December 8–9 meeting to about 78 percent, from about two in three before the release, per the global close carrying the Reuters readings. San Francisco’s president’s expectation, filed at evening—that the central bank will probably have to tighten further—stands as the official sentence nearest the market’s own. Asia’s week closed in the same file: the Nikkei 225 down 5.96 percent on its Friday to 57,434.77, more than 20 percent below its late-June record. The next bearing is on the calendar the Evening Watch printed: October consumer prices, Tuesday, November 10 at 0830, the last inflation report the central bank sees before it votes. Saturday brings one scheduled corporate item, Berkshire Hathaway’s third-quarter report in the morning, per the corporate file below. The markets are closed. The count is not.
The Cocked Hat
Three bearings never give a point; they give a small triangle, and this paper prints the triangle. First, Mississippi at midnight: 2,493 votes in the wire’s 4:37 p.m. figures, 2,498 in the Jackson account’s afternoon tally, 2,574 in the wire’s 8:50 p.m. figures, and over 2,500 in the live file at 6:43 p.m.—four readings of one widening lead, the leader the same in each, the race uncalled in each. Second, the strike: the president’s account of an anti-aircraft device knocked out in fifteen minutes, maybe five; the Iranian accounts of two missiles and two explosions in the Suza area; and no account from Central Command in any file by midnight, with the relationship between the reported impacts and the confirmed operation stated as not independently established in the fullest account. Third, the House: 254 called for the Democrats and 162 for the Republicans in the wire’s Friday-afternoon tally, against 250 and 161 with 24 uncalled in the NBC-based tally the Evening Watch carried—the difference is the hour and the desk, and both agree on the majority and its size within a few seats. Against the triangle, the load-bearing facts at midnight are single-valued: payrolls rose 165,000 and unemployment fell to 4.1 percent; a limited strike on Qeshm Island was carried out and confirmed by the president, and the larger Iran decision was not announced; the Justice Department dismissed its California ballot lawsuit in its own filing; Mississippi stands at 2,574 in the newest figures and Alaska at 637 in figures that have not changed since Wednesday; the week closed down 2.7 percent for the S&P 500; and Tuesday, November 10, carries consumer prices, Mississippi’s ballot deadline, Alaska’s next update, the House Republican leadership election, and the opening of the Abu Dhabi talks. Friday is settled where it is settled and open where it is open. The log turns.