The Midterm Elections — The Evening File
The Rally Erased: The Chips Fall, Oil Rises on Tankers, the Count Creeps On
The day’s developments whole at 1800: Wall Street gives back all of Wednesday’s post-election rally and more, the semiconductor index falls twelve percent, Brent settles up $3.67 after reports of tankers hit in the Strait of Hormuz, no Senate race is called for a second full day, the House count creeps upward in the afternoon, and every side files its considered response—the president with his veto, the incoming majority with its program, Tehran with its answer to the vice president.
The Count at Evening
No Senate race was called on Thursday, for the second full day. The Associated Press Senate file in its latest state still lists Alaska and Mississippi as too early to call, and the chamber stands where it stood on Wednesday: 54 seats for the Democrats and 44 for the Republicans. The margins underneath the two open races did not move in any file the desk could take in the afternoon. Mississippi’s Democrat, Scott Colom, leads the incumbent Republican, Cindy Hyde-Smith, by between 1,138 and 1,852 votes depending on the tally and its hour, as the midday edition printed; affidavit identification is due by November 10 and counties certify by November 13, and the candidate with the most votes wins—there is no runoff in this race. Alaska’s Democrat, Mary Peltola, leads the incumbent Republican, Dan Sullivan, by 637 first-choice votes, with a second candidate named Daniel Sullivan holding more votes than the margin; the ranked-choice tabulation is scheduled for November 18. Control of neither chamber is in question in any count on the shelf.
The House count crept upward in the afternoon, and the call desks still do not agree on how much of it has been called. The Associated Press House tracker in its latest state shows 248 seats won by the Democrats and 13 more led, against 154 won and 20 led for the Republicans. A live results file updated at 2:44 p.m. EST runs the called figure higher: 252 seats for the Democrats and 160 for the Republicans, 412 of 435 races called, with 23 still counting. The Independent’s live file recorded House races projected for the Democrats during the day—Luz Rivas in California, Sam Forstag in Montana, and Shannon Taylor in Virginia among them—and carried a projected total of 247 Democrats to 147 Republicans at its hour. The three files were taken at different hours from different call desks. They disagree about the called total by as much as ten seats. They agree that the Democrats will organize the House in January, and that the final majority will not be known until the western counts finish.
Colorado supplied the afternoon’s one new House call and the evening’s closest watched count. The Associated Press called Colorado’s 5th District for the Democrat, Jessica Killin, on Thursday afternoon—the first Democrat to win the district since it was created in 1972—per the state results file carrying the secretary of state’s figures, updated at 1:11 p.m. MST. In the 4th District the same file, on the state’s figures, puts the Democrat, Eileen Laubacher, at 176,427 votes and the incumbent Republican, Lauren Boebert, at 174,173—a margin of 2,254 votes, narrower than the 2,513 the wire and Decision Desk HQ carried at midday—with twenty of the district’s twenty-one counties still counting and the race still too early to call. Kansas’s governorship stands where the midday edition left it: the Democrat, Cindy Holscher, ahead by 7,045 votes with all precincts reporting, the close-race audits ordered, the race uncalled. The governorships stand at 28 for the Democrats with Alaska and Kansas open.
The Markets at the Close
Thursday’s session erased Wednesday’s rally and went past it. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 1,833.06 points, or 3.44 percent, at 51,523.06—against a gain of 1,569.40 points the day before. The S&P 500 closed down 4.36 percent at 7,353.73, its worst day since April 2025. The Nasdaq Composite closed down 5.52 percent at 24,315.00, in correction territory, 11.9 percent below its October 6 record close. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 6.36 percent at 26,629.81. The figures agree across the closing account filed below and the wire’s reporting through the day. The volatility index, the market’s fear gauge, closed at 28.09, up 69.1 percent from Wednesday’s 16.61. Treasury prices rose as shares fell; the ten-year yield slipped about six basis points to roughly 4.84 percent. The midday edition recorded the turn beginning—the Dow up 0.62 percent at the opening bell and down 1.67 percent at 10:41 a.m.—and the close completed it.
The selling began in the chips and did not stop there. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 12.25 percent to 9,011.14, per the closing account carrying Bloomberg’s figures; Reuters’ market commentary records the index down as much as 11 percent in the session, its worst performance since March 2020. Reuters’ news file names the trigger and the chain: Qualcomm fell 9 percent after its fourth-quarter smartphone chip sales came in below estimates; the data-center operators IREN, Hut 8, and Applied Digital fell between 6 and 11 percent; the neocloud companies CoreWeave and Nebius shed 9.3 and 13.4 percent; the server maker Dell fell 10.5 percent; Tesla fell 9.5 percent. The closing account adds the largest falls: SanDisk down 22.3 percent, Advanced Micro Devices down 17.3 percent, Nvidia down 9.3 percent. A senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, quoted in the wire’s file, stated the political reading in plain terms: “There is now a chance that the two years of extra push from the Trump government for AI buildout will somehow be scaled back… We suspect there is going to be some scrutiny on this aggressive AI buildout.” The ballot record underneath that reading is the one this paper filed on Wednesday: 41 local measures on data-center construction across ten states, with the restricting measures passing or leading in the counts so far. A UBS note carried in the morning put about 30 percent of expected 2028 data-center additions at risk from pauses in the buildout.
The day’s economic figures ran the other way, and the desk prints them beside the close because both are the day. Reuters’ report of the Labor Department’s morning releases records initial claims for unemployment benefits down 6,000 to 189,000 for the week ended October 31—the lowest reading since 1969, matched only in mid-July—against a forecast of 196,000, and third-quarter nonfarm productivity up at a 3.6 percent annualized rate against a forecast of 2.8 percent, with unit labor costs down 0.7 percent. The same report states the limit on the good news: hiring remains constrained, and the claims report has no bearing on Friday’s October employment report, which is due at 8:30 a.m. ET and is the next test the market has set itself. From the Federal Reserve, Cleveland President Beth Hammack stated on Thursday that she favored a gradual rate-hike path to lower inflation, per the wire’s file; Richmond President Thomas Barkin, in remarks carried in the day’s market digest, called inflation the most important risk for the Fed right now, said the AI buildout has had an inflationary impact in the near term, called credit dynamics in the banking sector reassuring at this point, and said he had no point of view about what will happen to fiscal policy following the election. Traders currently expect the Fed to raise rates next month, following the September increase. In London, the Bank of England’s morning decision stands as the midday edition filed it: Bank Rate raised to 4 percent from 3.75 percent by 8–1, the dissent voting for 4.25 percent, with at least one more increase likely if the conflict between the United States and Iran continues.
Oil and the Strait
Oil reversed Wednesday’s fall at the settlement, on reports of tankers hit in the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters’ New York file records Brent crude futures settled up $3.67, or 3.88 percent, at $98.29 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate closed up $2.40, or 2.72 percent, at $90.52—the first rise in four sessions, after both benchmarks fell more than 8 percent on Wednesday to their lowest settlements since August 31. The morning’s figures, printed in the midday edition, had Brent between $93.65 and $97 depending on the hour and the feed; the settlement is the day’s fixed point. The analysts quoted give the reason as caution: a note from Gelber and Associates, carried in the file, states that the rebound reflects caution about pricing in a rapid normalization of oil flows before diplomatic progress becomes dependable shipping. Eurasia Group’s revised odds, carried in the same file, cut the probability of a deal to 10 percent from 20 percent, cut the chance of renewed American strikes to 60 percent from 65 percent, raised a continued standoff to 30 percent from 15 percent, and stated that escalation could push Brent into a $110 to $125 range.
The tanker reports are claims, and the desk files them as claims, from each side that made them. Reuters’ Gulf file records that at least five vessels have reported incidents since Sunday, according to the British maritime security agency UKMTO—about the pace of October, when the agency counted 35 vessels hit, the most of any month of the war—and that a vessel was struck by two unidentified projectiles late on Wednesday. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said two tankers had struck naval mines and another had caught fire on Thursday; in the oil file’s version, the Guards said two oil tankers and a tugboat caught fire in separate incidents after attempting to use unauthorized routes through the strait. The two versions do not match in detail, and no independent confirmation of the Thursday incidents appears in either file. Saudi Arabia issued alerts on Thursday warning of potential danger in Yanbu, its Red Sea export hub, as Yemen’s Houthis continued attacks on the kingdom; the Houthis later said they attacked King Fahd airport in Dammam, and there was no immediate confirmation from the Saudi authorities. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, discussed the latest progress in diplomatic efforts in separate calls with his Saudi and Qatari counterparts, per the foreign ministry statement carried in the oil file.
No agreement was announced on Thursday, and the state of the talks at evening is the state the midday edition left, with Tehran’s answer to the vice president added. The mediation account filed with the midday edition stands: Qatar has intensified its efforts, both governments are reviewing the mediators’ proposals, Tehran’s conditions—removal of oil sanctions, an end to the American naval blockade, and the release of frozen assets—must be met before the strait reopens, and a senior Iranian official’s statement that the two sides remain a considerable distance from a deal has not been withdrawn. The new entry is political. Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, answered Vice President Vance’s post of Wednesday—the post that named the war as the reason for the Republican defeat—in the Gulf file’s account: he accused the vice president of letting the president double down like a “losing gambler” by planning more strikes, and said, “Skip the TED talk. Why not say this to your boss?” Two sources told Reuters they believed the president was still likely to order resumed hostilities, one of them stating: “He is planning to bomb Iran. Don’t listen to what he’s saying. He held off because of the midterms.” The sources are unnamed and the statement is theirs. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, said on Wednesday that there should not be “even the slightest inclination towards submission” to the United States, which he said would remain hostile towards Iran no matter which party was in power. The strait, the blockade, the sanctions, and the nuclear program remain the four subjects of the mediation, in that file’s summary, and none of the four moved on Thursday.
Washington at Evening: The Considered Responses
The president’s considered position at evening has two halves, and both are on the record in his own words. Reuters’ Washington file carries the morning-after appearance at the White House ballroom site: “I’ll get along probably with the Democrats, unless they want to be destructive, but I have the power of the veto.” The account of his further remarks filed below adds the sharper versions: to Fox News, “They’re really not in control because they can send over, you know, 50 different great bills that they’re all excited about, and I send them back with a nice stamp veto”; to Politico, “I don’t want to be just sitting there for two years vetoing everything”; and, asked whether he was concerned about a third impeachment attempt, “not even a little bit,” with the warning that it would “destroy” the Democratic Party if they tried. He said he will work with the Democrats to make sure things go well for the country. The two halves do not cancel each other. They are the negotiating position of a president who has lost both chambers and kept the veto, stated by the president himself on the second day.
The incoming majority’s considered response describes the same bargain from the other side. The account of the Democratic leaders’ planning filed below records House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries at an afternoon press conference on Wednesday: Democrats “are ready, willing and able to find bipartisan common ground with the other side of the aisle as long as we can bring about meaningful change on the issues that matter. And that begins with decisively addressing the affordability crisis.” The same account records the to-do list the majority says it will begin with—reversing the Medicaid changes in the president’s tax-and-spending law and restoring the enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credits that lapsed at the end of last year—and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer’s stated priorities: lowering the cost of living, cleaning up corruption in government, acting as a check on the administration, and using the annual government funding bills to impose limits on the administration and on the war in Iran. On impeachment, Jeffries repeated the sentence he has given every questioner: “I haven’t had a single member of the House Democratic Caucus talk to me about impeachment. We’ve been relentlessly focused on affordability and on accountability.” The account states the arithmetic both sides are working from: the majority will not hold veto-proof margins, so any major legislation will need the president’s signature. The program and the veto are now both on paper. What they produce together is the work of the Congress that convenes on January 3.
The Republican Party’s internal business for the week is a leadership election, and its date is set. The Daily Caller’s account records that Speaker Mike Johnson announced on Wednesday that he will not seek a leadership role in the next Congress, and that Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Judiciary Committee chairman Jim Jordan launched bids the same day to become the party’s next leader. House Republicans hold their leadership elections on Tuesday, November 10, with candidates required to declare by November 6; Majority Whip Tom Emmer has told colleagues he will run for whip in the minority, and Republican Study Committee chairman August Pfluger is challenging him for that post, per the accounts filed below. Scalise’s letter to the conference, quoted in the Caller, states his case in one sentence: “I am ready to lead on day one and chart our path back to the majority.” In the Senate, Republicans hold their leadership elections on November 10 as well, and Majority Leader John Thune is expected to run again, per the accounts. Jeffries made his own bid for the speakership official in a Dear Colleague letter on Wednesday. The gavels change hands in January; the contests for who will hold the minority’s are decided next week.
The World at Evening
The foreign responses filed by evening sort into the same three groups as Wednesday’s, with the positions now stated by governments rather than parties. Al Jazeera’s roundup of the world’s reactions leads with Tehran: parliament speaker Ghalibaf’s post—“Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message”—and the supreme leader’s statement that partisan shifts in Washington will not alter American hostility towards Iran. In Europe, European Parliament vice president Christel Schaldemose said the results left her “cautiously optimistic on Europe’s behalf”; Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, called the Democratic victory emblematic of the unravelling of the global far right; Britain’s prime minister, Andy Burnham, said the results presented an opportunity for world leaders to work together to ease cost-of-living pressures and resolve the conflict in the Middle East, per the account of the foreign leaders’ responses filed below; France’s finance minister, Roland Lescure, said Paris would wait to see whether the president, who remains in control of American foreign policy, adjusts his approach. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, noted that the Democratic Party’s leaders had a sharply negative approach to relations with Moscow, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow hoped the results would not impact the president’s peacemaking efforts. South Africa’s president, Cyril Ramaphosa, said the election marks a new era in world relations. Japan’s chief cabinet secretary, Minoru Kihara, emphasized that the Japan–United States alliance stands. In Israel, where the prime minister’s coalition lost its own parliamentary majority last week, there was no immediate reaction from Benjamin Netanyahu; Yair Golan, of a coalition seeking to replace him, said the American vote reveals how toxic Netanyahu has become among American Democrats and Republicans alike. Every capital read the same election. Each read it as a sentence about itself, and the desk files the readings as readings.
The Cocked Hat
Three bearings never give a point; they give a small triangle, and this paper prints the triangle. First, the House: 248 seats won and 13 led in the Associated Press tracker’s latest state, 252 called for the Democrats in a live file updated at 2:44 p.m., and 247 projected in the Independent’s file at its hour—three call desks, three hours, one chamber, and agreement only on the outcome. Second, Colorado’s 4th: a margin of 2,513 votes in the wire and Decision Desk figures carried at midday, and 2,254 in the state’s figures in the afternoon file—the leader the same, the margin narrowing as the count proceeds, the race uncalled in both. Third, the strait: five vessels reporting incidents since Sunday in the British agency’s count, two tankers on mines and a third on fire in the Revolutionary Guards’ Thursday statement, and two tankers and a tugboat on fire in the same statement as carried in a second file—the incidents claimed, the details unmatched, the confirmation absent. Against the triangle, the load-bearing facts of the evening are single-valued: no Senate race was called on Thursday; the Dow closed down 1,833 points and the Nasdaq Composite down 5.52 percent, in correction; the semiconductor index fell about twelve percent; Brent settled at $98.29, up $3.67; initial jobless claims stand at 189,000, the lowest since 1969; the Bank of England’s rate stands at 4 percent; the House Republican leadership election is set for November 10; and Friday’s employment report is due at 8:30 a.m. The count belongs to the clerks until November 10 in Mississippi and November 18 in Alaska. The log proceeds to midnight.